Welcome to the Week 5 Edition of Delbarton’s Fantasy Football Corner! It was a very down week for most fantasy players, which might make it more difficult to trade or find valuable free agents this week. If you find yourself 1-3 or 2-2 after the first 4 weeks, this might be the time where you decide to make some desperate moves. But as Aaron Rodgers said, “R-E-L-A-X.” This article will focus on how to evaluate your team, along with some trade targets and waiver pickups.

First, do not always look at your record when evaluating your team. Instead, look at “Points For (PF),” as this is a much better indicator of where your team’s current position. If your team has accumulated a lot of PF, but you still have a losing record, you have just been the victim of bad luck. So don’t worry at this point in the season. There is still plenty of time to improve, and fantasy football is sometimes just a game of luck. Nobody can tell the future, but what I can do is give you the most probable scenarios.

If the leader in PF in your league is consistently missing the playoffs, I recommend you make a rule change next year, which I believe minimizes luck in the game. Let’s take a 10 team league. I proposed in my league that the top 2 teams in each division make the playoffs, with the division winners getting byes. Then, I suggested that 2 wildcard teams make the playoffs. However, the teams would be determined by PF, not record. If you fall victim to luck always being on your opponent’s side, this scenario helps you still succeed. Now, let’s focus on this year, and more specifically, the guy you should be targeting in your leagues.

BUY LOW: DAVID MONTGOMERY

A running back I drafted in my league this year was David Montgomery of the Chicago Bears. However, I have yet to start him in my lineup, as I was waiting for him to break out as the starting running back. If you did not draft him, now is the time to get him. Here’s a look at his snap counts through the first 4 weeks:

Week 1: 38%

Week 2: 44%

Week 3: 67%

Week 4: 69%

As you can see, his snap counts are slowly climbing week by week, and this means more touches and opportunities to get you fantasy points. Right now, Mitch Trubisky, the Bears’ starting QB, has a dislocated shoulder and a slight labrum tear. He should be back for Week 7, but he will most likely not play in Week 5, and the Bears have a bye Week 6. With Trubisky out, I expect the Bears to rely on their run game more often, and as of October 1st, they are favored by 5 points. So, they will most likely be in a “positive game script” (for more information check out the Week 3 article) and thus run the ball more. Also, in 2018, the Raiders allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, so expect a good week from David Montgomery. As he continues to get more carries and targets, his value will only rise throughout the season, so be sure to get him on your roster right now. If he does, indeed, have a stellar performance against Oakland, he may become too difficult to acquire. On his current course, I project him to be a high-end RB2 by week 10. 

WAIVER WIRE ADD: TYLER EIFERT

The tight end (TE) position is very thin this year, so you might be looking week-to-week guys with favorable matchups. A guy I like this week, but not necessarily in other weeks, is Tyler Eifert of the Cincinnati Bengals. He’s owned in just 17.3% of ESPN leagues, so he should be available in most leagues. Eifert is third in receptions and tied for third in targets on Cincinnati, but the Bengals will most likely be exploiting the Cardinals defense this week, which has allowed the most fantasy points to TEs this year. The Cardinals even cut their starting safety, DJ Swearinger, as he was incapable of covering TEs. The Cardinals secondary is already weak with Patrick Peterson’s suspension, and I don’t see them making much improvement before Sunday. In addition, the Bengals recently placed John Ross on the IR, so this should just lead to more targets for Eifert.

Make sure to check back next week for more tips on how to build a winning fantasy football team!