Pierce’s Picks: League-Winning Strategy

Welcome back to the latest edition of “Pierce’s Picks!”

With only four weeks left in the fantasy football regular season, it is time to consider planning for the playoffs if your team is currently sitting at 9-0, 8-1, or 7-2. Therefore, it is imperative that you look at players’ matchups during Weeks 14-16. If you have a high chance of making the playoffs, you should consider taking a short-term loss for a long-term gain. Indeed, if one of your players has easy matchups in the upcoming weeks, you should still consider trading away the player if he has an unfavorable playoff schedule. As the playoffs approach, owners will be less willing to give up players that have good matchups, so it’s important to try to acquire them this week. Let’s look at an example of a trade you should consider if you’re close to clinching a playoff spot or have already qualified.

EXAMPLE: TRADE DALVIN COOK FOR DERRICK HENRY + ADDITIONAL ASSETS

In the last two weeks, Cook has put up a total of 106.8 PPR points, which has propelled him into the OPOY and MVP conversation (ESPN). He has become the most sought after player in fantasy football, which means you can get a king’s ransom for him. I’d be looking to sell him to a bubble team, as Cook has a relatively easy schedule these next few weeks. However, he has one of the worst playoff schedules in fantasy football. He has to play the Buccaneers, Bears, and Saints in that stretch, and those teams are the 12th, 11th, and 4th best defenses in fantasy against RBs respectively (FF Today). Meanwhile, the Packers and Vikings, whom Cook faced-off against the previous two weeks, are the two worst defenses against the run in terms of PPR points allowed (FF Today). There is also a significant margin in points allowed between the Packers/Vikings and the third-worst team—the Houston Texans. Undoubtedly, Cook’s stats the last two games have been inflated due to historically bad defenses. However, his schedule for the remaining parts of the regular season is generally favorable, so Cook’s value is still at an all-time high. Therefore, if you were to trade him, you would want to receive two or three significant assets in return.

On the other hand, Derrick Henry’s schedule is the exact opposite of Cook’s. Henry has to face the Colts twice—who have allowed almost half of the points to RBs as the Packers/Vikings have—and the Ravens, who have allowed the fifth-fewest points to RBs (FF Today). So, Henry has an incredibly difficult schedule to close out the regular season. However, he opens up the playoffs against the Jaguars, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to RBs. Then, if you advance to the semifinals, you are almost GUARANTEED to win your league. Henry faces the Packers and Vikings to close out the playoffs—the two teams Cook absolutely torched. ESPN will most likely project Henry to get around 44 PPR points throughout those two weeks, but he has the potential to double that number. This could be a league-winning acquisition.

Again, I want to reiterate that I would only recommend this trade strategy if you are locked in a playoff spot or have a very good chance at making it to the playoffs. This is NOT a trade I would consider making if I desperately needed a few wins to close out the regular season.