Paul’s Picks No. 3

Reviewing your fantasy football draft strategy

A whole lot of football has been played since the preseason in August. With the regular season behind us, along with most fantasy football leagues, it’s time to analyze your upcoming draft picks. I cringe realizing that my second, fourth, and fifth picks were Antonio Gibson, Lamar Jackson, and Julio Jones respectively, so updating my draft strategy will be crucial in having a more successful season next year. It’s never possible to predict injuries, and those, like the one Lamar Jackson sustained in Week 14, are simply an unfair part of the game. Intuitively, you can minimize the risk of drafting an injury-prone team by staying away from injury-prone players, take Dalvin Cook, for example. The only real antidote to treating the injury bug is depth. If you don’t have a deep bench, overflowing with viable running backs, wide receivers, and other flex options, the football gods will do their thing and your team will turn into “Team Waiver Wire.” Nobody wants to have that team that, with an abundance of drafted players on injured reserve, is totally unrecognizable from Week 1 come playoff time.

Most important to keep in mind while planning your draft strategy is to not pay any attention to the projections. There is a reason why auto-picking will never result in winning as the ESPN rankings never prove accurate. This year, for example, ESPN had Saquon Barkley at seventh overall, and he ended the season at 34th among running backs. ESPN also heavily favored Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, and Derrick Henry all of whom underperformed on the field. In short, the favorited first overall draft pick is never the player you should have at the top of your list. Since Jonathon Taylor had a breakout season this past year, recording a total of 20 touchdowns, he will no doubt come in at #1 in ESPN’s rankings for next year. Yet there is virtually no chance he can repeat this level of success. Looking at other factors besides the previous year’s outcome is the best way to go in arranging your personal rankings. Is the player injury-prone? Is he experienced in the NFL? How is his team’s offensive line? Does he have good averages in yards per carry or yards per reception? Is he competing for playing time? Asking these questions is far more practical than aligning yourself with ESPN’s ratings. 

Something I will most definitely try in my next fantasy draft is to load up on running backs, and I’m not talking about three in the first five rounds, I’m talking about taking five in the first five rounds. It can’t be overemphasized enough how having depth at the running back position is the best way to attain trade appeal. In the past, I’ve managed very balanced teams with a top 10 QB, two top 15 RBS, and three mid-tier wide receivers, but I question if drafting a quarterback before the seventh round is worth it. Unquestionably, wide-receivers should be taken in the fourth, fifth, or sixth rounds. I was high on JaMaar Chase in the pre-season, ranking him 28th amongst wide receivers. If Chase fell into my lap come the fifth round, it would have been a textbook value pick given he finished 5th overall. Those are the types of picks that win leagues. You could easily decide to pick Stefon Diggs or Deandre Hopkins in the first or second round, or you could “buy low” and invest in the stock you think will boom. Success in fantasy football is all about making bold predictions and bets on undervalued players. Take lots of running-backs early and, in the late rounds, take the JaMarr Chase, the Jalen Waddle, or the Hunter Renfrow of the season. 

Speaking of JaMarr Chase, he and the Bengals will be competing in the Super Bowl for the first time since 1988 against the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams are a 4.5 point favorite to win, but Joe Burrow will surely have something to say about that. The NFL playoffs this year have rounded out pretty much exactly how most NFL fans wanted. No Tom Brady, no Patriots, no Patrick Mahomes. Fresh blood is in the running for the Lombardi Trophy, and for many, like Odell Beckham Jr., Aaron Donald, and Matthew Stafford, it could be a first Super Bowl victory. The way I see it, the Bengals are more than capable of beating the Rams. Defeating the Chiefs twice isn’t a feat to be scoffed at. Should the Bengals defense hold down the fort, I expect Joey B. and his wide-receiver trio to trample Jalen Ramsey and the Rams. That said, I can’t wait for an exciting game to watch this Sunday. Hopefully, things won’t turn out like the last time the Rams were on this stage when they played in a disappointing loss, 13-3 game against the Patriots.