The Diamondbacks are hot off a two-game winning streak after they went down 2-0 to the Phillies in the NLCS. In the American League, Adolis Garcia and the Rangers muscled by the Astros in seven games.
Though it is not the matchup many expected, the Diamondbacks and Rangers make for an exciting World Series. The D-Backs were the underdogs coming into the championship series due to the Phillies’ thrilling lineup filled with power that solidified their spot as a playoff powerhouse. Their home field is notorious for its intense playoff atmosphere; every seat was filled for the NLCS. Shockingly, the Phillies did not win one game at home in the series.
The D-Backs, similarly, also only won away games, but their path to the playoffs was much different. After winning only 84 games and struggling through a 7-24 stretch in July, the D-Backs didn’t seem to have the same flair that Bryce Harper or Nick Castellanos presented for the Phillies. With a resilient group of players and a young superstar in Corbin Carroll, the D-Backs proved everyone wrong and took game seven in Philadelphia.
However, the biggest story of MLB’s championship series was not in Philadelphia or even Arizona. The Rangers’ 30-year-old Adolis Garcia has been hitting fireworks seemingly on command and is having one of the best postseasons in recent history. His four hits and two home runs in the deciding game against the Astros helped his team overpower a postseason juggernaut and will send him to the World Series. Though the Astros had only 90 wins in 2023, they have appeared in eight of the last nine postseasons and have been a tough team to beat for years. To predict the winner of such an unlikely World Series matchup is difficult, but statistics provide great information on the specifics of each team.
Starting pitching may be an issue for both teams. In the ‘23 regular season, statistics give the Rangers a slight advantage for regular season ERA at 4.28. The Diamondbacks were worse at 4.48. In the postseason, however, the Diamondbacks have posted an impressive 3.23 ERA, while the Rangers sport a 3.67 earned run average as a club. Neither team seems to have an overall more consistent pitching staff, as Rangers’ pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Max Scherzer and D-Backs starters Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly all heavily fluctuate from start to start. The Rangers will need both of their star pitchers to be on their A-game, but there is reason to believe they won’t be.
For example, Eovaldi’s last start included some adversity, and he surrendered two runs; the start before, he let up three. Scherzer, who recently came back from the IL and is looking older at 39, lasted only 2.2 innings in his last start and 4.0 in his previous one. He surrendered a total of seven runs in the two outings. The Diamondback’s top pitchers have not been much better. Zac Gallen, usually the D-Backs ace, has pitched to a 5.24 ERA over his four postseason appearances. Merrill Kelly has also given up big runs in his last few starts, allowing five in his last 10.2 innings.
However, the D-Backs bullpen, namely Paul Sewald, their closer, has been dominant thus far. Over six appearances, Sewald has a perfect ERA of zero over 8 scoreless innings. The back end of the Rangers bullpen has been weaker, as their closer José Leclerc holds a 4.35 ERA over the 2023 postseason, where he has logged 10.1 innings. This trend is not just for closers, as the Diamondback’s bullpen ERA of 2.94 this postseason looks much less dangerous than the Rangers, who are currently at 3.72.
Offensively, the Rangers, or just Adolis Garcia, provide more power than the Diamondbacks. His 6 home runs and 19 RBI lead the Rangers and outnumber any D-Back player in both categories. The Rangers as a team boast more home runs, RBI, total bases, walks, hits, and fewer strikeouts. However, hitting is not everything. The Diamondbacks, while trailing in all six categories, are close behind and have still had a respectable offensive campaign. After all, the D-Backs are more of a scrappy baseball team, especially with the speed of Corbin Carroll. He has led his team in stolen bases for the entire year and has stolen four in the postseason thus far. His .396 in the ‘23 postseason will continue to allow him to swipe bags and score runs.
Overall, if the Diamondbacks could right the ship with their starters, their bullpen is sure to be in lockdown mode, even against the big bats of the powerful Rangers. While the Rangers have the ability to overcome their pitching flaws, Max Scherzer and Nathan Eovaldi’s performances will likely decide the Fall Classic. It will undoubtedly be a great matchup between two well-built teams, but the Diamondbacks will win in seven games.
