Pierce’s Picks: No “Big Easy” Decision This Week

Welcome to Pierce’s Picks!

After a brief hiatus, the injury bug in the NFL returned in Week 10, and its latest victim is Drew Brees, the quarterback of the New Orleans Saints. According to CBS Sports, Brees suffered a collapsed lung and multiple rib fractures in the Saints’ victory over San Francisco. On Wednesday, Ian Rapoport, one of the premier analysts for NFL Network, noted that additional testing was done on Brees after the game on Sunday, but the Saints still do not have a definitive timetable for when their face of the franchise will return. At best, Brees is expected to miss at least two weeks, but there is a high probability that he misses four (or more) games. 

Consequently, former number one overall pick Jameis Winston will have control of the offense in New Orleans. Thus, fantasy owners might feel inclined to add Winston to their roster, and it makes sense when looking at his matchups. In the next three weeks, the Saints play the Falcons twice, and they will also make a trip to Denver to take on the Broncos. This season, the Falcons have allowed more points to fantasy QBs than any other team in the NFL, and the Broncos have had an average pass defense in 2020 (FF Today). As a result, Winston’s ownership percentage in ESPN leagues climbed from 0.7% to 21.6% in the past few days, as fantasy owners see these contests as huge opportunities for Winston to put up QB1 numbers (ESPN).

However, I urge fantasy owners to consider how the dynamic of Saints’ offense changed in the second half of Sunday’s game when Winston took over. For those unaware, the Saints leaned heavily on their RBs and their “swiss army knife,” Taysom Hill, once Brees went out. This makes sense, as the Saints were leading throughout most of the game, but I still can’t ignore the large discrepancy in pass attempts to TE/WR by Winston. When Brees went down, the Saints ran a total of 34 plays on offense. However, three of those plays were kneel downs at the end of the game, so I am going to exclude those from my analysis. So, we are left with 31 plays. On 19.4% of those plays, Winston was not even in at QB—Taysom Hill was behind center (ESPN). In addition, the Saints ran the ball on 13 plays, which amounts to 41.9% of the 31 snaps. Thus, Winston dropped back to pass on only 12 out of the 31 plays. Again, the Saints were leading the game, so they were expected to be more run-heavy, but even when they were passing it, they were not letting Winston’s cannon loose. Now, some owners might see this as a good thing since Winston has historically thrown a significant number of interceptions, but this practically diminishes any upside that he had. On 3 of his 12 drop-backs, he simply tossed the ball to Alvin Kamara (ESPN). He was also sacked twice, which means he only passed the ball to a WR/TE seven times in the game; thus, his yardage numbers will most likely be low (ESPN). All in all, I don’t think Winston should be in your starting lineup this week.

On the flip side, Kamara’s value just skyrocketed, but he should be in your lineup every week, no questions asked. The most intriguing Saint that I could see a fantasy owner potentially start is Taysom Hill at the TE position. Yes, in some leagues, Hill is listed as a TE and a QB. So, if you are desperate for a TE, I would definitely consider starting Hill at that spot considering he will most likely get some rushing yards, passing yards, receiving yards, and maybe a touchdown. Obviously, if you have a top-10 TE, you’re not starting Hill, but if the waiver wire is thin and your TE is on a bye, I wouldn’t mind slating Hill in at the TE spot.