The first phase of European football’s biggest club competition, the UEFA Champions League, is now over, which means it is time for the knockout stages.
How does the UCL work?
36 teams across Europe earned Champions League qualification through their domestic league competitions last year. Each team then played 8 matches in the league phase, which give 3 points for every win, 1 for every draw, and 0 for a loss. They were then put into a table based on each club’s number of points. The top 8 teams in the table get automatic births into the round of 16. Teams 24-36 are eliminated, with teams 9-24 are drawn into knockout, playoff style matches. This gives 8 intriguing ties, with the winners later being drawn to play one of the top 8 teams.
The draw for clubs placed 9-24 was based on their place in the bigger league phase table, and took place on January 30th. The ties for the next playoff round are…
- Monaco vs PSG
- Galatasaray vs Juventus
- Benfica vs Real Madrid
- Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta
- Qarabağ vs Newcastle
- Club Brugge vs Atletico Madrid
- Bodø/Glimt vs Inter
- Olympiacos vs Leverkusen
Each matchup has two games, one game(also called a leg) at each team’s stadium. The winner will be determined by the aggregate score, which is the added score of each game. Here is an example: if team A wins the first leg 1-0, but team B wins the second leg 2-0, then team B will move on after winning 2-1 on aggregate. If the teams are tied after the two legs, then an additional 30 minutes will be played at the end of the second game. If the two teams are still tied, then it will go to a penalty shootout.
Predictions
Monaco vs PSG
PSG are the current holders of the UCL after dominating Inter 5-0 in last year’s final. After a historic season last year, they had high expectations for this year’s campaign. Although they are still one of Europe’s best teams, it is a little bit of a shock to not see them in the top 8. They finished 11th. PSG drew Monaco for the playoff round, making it an all French tie. In fact, these two teams already played each other this season in Ligue 1, the French domestic league, with Monaco getting a 1-0 upset win.
Leg 1: 1-0 PSG
Leg 2: 3-0 PSG
Agg: 4-0 PSG move on
At the end of the day, PSG is just too good a team to lose in the first round. I think they move to the round of 16 comfortably as they look to repeat as Champions League winners.
Galatasaray vs Juventus
Juventus finished strong in the league phase, winning 3 of their last 4 matches. They finished 13th in the table. Gala finished 20th with a roller coaster of a campaign. These two teams are very evenly matched, both with great atmospheres at their home stadiums. The evenness of this tie also makes it very unpredictable. Also, the last time these two teams played each other was in 2013, so no recent results to go off.
Leg 1: 1-0 Gala
Leg 2: 2-1 Juve
Agg: 2-2 Gala wins on penalties.
Both home atmospheres make it close, but I think Gala pull it off after an exciting return leg in Turin.
Benfica vs Real Madrid
This tie between 9th placed Real Madrid and 24th placed Benfica looks to be a thriller. Benfica lost their first four league phase matches, and then miraculously turned their season around winning their last four, with the last match being an instant classic vs Real Madrid where Benfica’s GOALIE scored a last minute header-goal to send Benfica to the playoffs. After such a crazy final matchday game, this rematch looks like it’s going to be entertaining. Madrid will want revenge, and Benfica will want to prove that their win over Real was no fluke.
Leg 1: 2-2 draw
Leg 2: 1-0 Benfica
Agg: 3-2 Benfica move on
If they did it once, who says they can’t do it again? I think Benfica get another crazy upset against one of Europe’s biggest clubs in Real Madrid.
Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta
Borussia Dortmund of Germany take on Atalanta of Italy in a 15th vs 17th place matchup. Both teams ended their league phases on cold streaks. Dortmund had zero wins in their last three games with two losses and one draw. Atalanta also lost their last two matches after the win of their season vs Chelsea. Atalanta also just sold one of their better players, Lookman, in the recent transfer window.
Leg 1: 3-0 Dortmund
Leg 2: 1-1 draw
Agg: 4-1 Dortmund move on
I think the loss of Lookman will hurt Atalanta. I think Dortmund will win big in the first leg at home and never look back.
Qarabag vs Newcastle
Qarabağ from Azerbaijan placed 22nd in the league phase, and drew English side Newcastle in the playoff rounds. These two clubs have never faced each other, which makes sense because this is only Qarabağ’s second ever time in the Champions League. Both teams had rollercoaster league phases, which makes this tie more interesting.
Leg 1: 2-1 Newcastle
Leg 2: 4-0 Newcastle
Agg: 6-1 Newcastle move on
I think Newcastle’s historic trip to Azerbaijan will make the first leg close, but in the return leg they destroy Qarabag and move on.
Club Brugge vs Atletico Madrid
Another interesting tie that can go either way. Club Brugge of Belgium finished the league phase in 19th place, tallying 10 points after a very tough schedule. Atleti finished 14th with key wins over Inter and PSV. These two clubs also met not too long ago in 2022.
Leg 1: 1-0 Brugge
Leg 2: 2-0 Atletico
Agg: 2-1 Atletico move on
Atletico simply have a more talented squad and coach compared to Brugge. I think they come back in the return leg and move on.
Bodø/Glimt vs Inter
Bodo have been one of the Cinderella stories of this year’s campaign, finishing 23rd after two upset wins over Man City and Atleti. Inter, who finished 10th, will be looking to end their run and return to the Champions League final, the stage they lost in last year.
Leg 1: 3-0 Inter
Leg 2: 4-2 Inter
Agg: 7-2 Inter
Bodo’s magical run comes to an end against the Italian giants. Inter move on easily in their quest to win the UCL.
Olympiacos vs Leverkusen
This tie is another rematch from the league phase. Olympiacos, who finished 18th, beat Leverkusen, who finished 10th, on January 20th.
Leg 1: 2-0 Olympiacos
Leg 2: 1-0 Leverkusen
Agg: 2-1 Olympiacos
If they did it once, why can’t they do it again? I have the Greeks moving on to the next round.
This campaign’s first round is looking like an exciting one!
